We know about the political Gender Gap: the tendency of women vote Democratic and men to vote Republican. And we know about the God Gap: the tendency of the more religious to vote Republican and the less religious to vote Democratic. To these two (discussed here) we should start thinking about a third gap, more limited in scope but nevertheless of real potential significance. Call it the Mormon Gap: the tendency of evangelicals to vote disproportionately against Mormon candidates in Republican primaries.
The Mormon Gap may be defined as the percentage-point difference between the evangelical and the non-evangelical vote for a given Mormon candidate. Despite reports from the field alleging that Mitt Romney's Mormonism is less of a factor this primary season than it was in 2008, the Mormon gap has thus far not shrunk. To the contrary.
As I've noted before, Romney did worse with evangelicals in this year's Iowa Caucuses than he did four years ago. Then the Mormon Gap (Evangelicals/Non-Evangelicals) was 14 points (19/33); this year it was 24 points (14/38). In New Hampshire, the gap was seven points in 2008 (27/34) and nine points this year (31/40). In South Carolina, the gap was 8 points in 2008 (11/19); according to the latest PPP poll, it's now running at 18 points (21/39).
Now you might think that what we're looking at is not a Mormon Gap but a Romney Gap. But there's a good piece of evidence that suggests that this is not just about Romney. In this year's New Hampshire primary there was a second Mormon candidate who did well enough for a Mormon Gap to be assessed. And in John Huntsman's case the gap was 10 points (9/19).
Of course, given contests with different proportions of evangelical voters and multiple candidates finishing with varying vote totals, the significance of the Mormon Gap changes from state to state. In Iowa and South Carolina, where evangelicals make up some 60 percent of the Republican electorate, it's very significant. In New Hampshire, where they are less than a quarter, not so much: Romney's 9-point gap reduced his total vote by just three percentage points.
How much does the Mormon Gap matter? After the 2008 election cycle, John Green and I ran the numbers and concluded that Mitt Romney lost the nomination because evangelicals didn't vote for him. If he loses the nomination this time around, it will be for the same reason.
The Mormon Gap may be defined as the percentage-point difference between the evangelical and the non-evangelical vote for a given Mormon candidate. Despite reports from the field alleging that Mitt Romney's Mormonism is less of a factor this primary season than it was in 2008, the Mormon gap has thus far not shrunk. To the contrary.
As I've noted before, Romney did worse with evangelicals in this year's Iowa Caucuses than he did four years ago. Then the Mormon Gap (Evangelicals/Non-Evangelicals) was 14 points (19/33); this year it was 24 points (14/38). In New Hampshire, the gap was seven points in 2008 (27/34) and nine points this year (31/40). In South Carolina, the gap was 8 points in 2008 (11/19); according to the latest PPP poll, it's now running at 18 points (21/39).
Now you might think that what we're looking at is not a Mormon Gap but a Romney Gap. But there's a good piece of evidence that suggests that this is not just about Romney. In this year's New Hampshire primary there was a second Mormon candidate who did well enough for a Mormon Gap to be assessed. And in John Huntsman's case the gap was 10 points (9/19).
Of course, given contests with different proportions of evangelical voters and multiple candidates finishing with varying vote totals, the significance of the Mormon Gap changes from state to state. In Iowa and South Carolina, where evangelicals make up some 60 percent of the Republican electorate, it's very significant. In New Hampshire, where they are less than a quarter, not so much: Romney's 9-point gap reduced his total vote by just three percentage points.
How much does the Mormon Gap matter? After the 2008 election cycle, John Green and I ran the numbers and concluded that Mitt Romney lost the nomination because evangelicals didn't vote for him. If he loses the nomination this time around, it will be for the same reason.
